Water Tera MageTier 3
at EVO Regional
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-4-1
overall winrate
10.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.7%
avg ELO -11.1 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1167
· median 1167
· range 1167–1167
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1187
Q3 1381
1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.4% | -15.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
